The Mesinger Blog

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 4/4/25

I don’t think anyone would argue that our aircraft market is on the move, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder, Mesinger Jet Sales.

For example, look at this month’s Controller Magazine with 379 pages of aircraft for sale. I haven’t seen the publication as thick in several years. Many of the email marketing companies are reporting an increased number of daily messages going out announcing on the market, requiring sellers to affect pricing and undergo maintenance inspections they had probably hoped would be on the new owners’ time and dime. Or, at the very least, accomplished during a pre-buy inspection that occurs during a selling event.

So, what does this mean? From where I sit, we are still seeing a good amount of demand, though maybe not with the same vigour we all experienced during the final quarter of the year as buyers move to capture year-end 100% bonus depreciation opportunities.

Something I frequently comment on is that our markets do not like uncertainty and there seems to be no shortage of that right now. It is a bit like the weather in Colorado; if you don’t like it, just wait an hour, and it will change. This also seems to be the narrative of the tariff story. One day we have them, the next they disappear. And the greater effects of all the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) cuts have yet to be written.

Getting some clarity around tax breaks and the renewal of the 100% bonus depreciation would be nice. I know those who can afford to buy and operate these business tools are standing by watching for those outcomes.

So, back to the title of this article. Is the market moving from the top up, meaning is the top of the market pulling up the market and sending prices upwards, or is it being pulled down from the bottom? It might be bifurcated. This would see the very top, long-range newer aircraft segregate themselves from the older, slower, shorter-range planes that are then pulled down at the bottom. We have not seen this phenomenon in many years.

We always say this could be the end of the ageing aircraft playing such a role in the overall fleet of our aircraft universe. However, new demand for ageing aircraft in the fleet, as supply dwindles, keeps reviving this segment. And conversely, supply chain issues, parts issues, and obsolescence issues keep trying to end-of-life this segment. Maybe this time it really will.

So, to recap, uncertainty over government cutbacks, uncertainty over tariffs and uncertainty over International issues will really plague us all. Bringing certainty to the financial and International segments of our life will help us all. Let’s watch this together and keep our eyes and ears open and our communication channels open. Talk soon.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 1/31/25

Maybe you have never noticed what makes for a good ad in publications that will both catch the eye and make the sale. There is a name for such a structure, and it is called the Plant and the Payoff, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder of Mesinger Jet Sales.

The headline ‘plants’ an idea as the hook, and then somewhere in the body copy, often the final line, the text incorporates or repeats – pays off – some aspect of the headline. Last week, our advertising agency guru visited us, and I heard him use this terminology. It really resonated with me. I realized I use this without even knowing it as I describe our services to clients verbally or talk about aircraft we have for sale. It seems like such a logical discussion format.

Politicians use this as well when they describe new ideas for policy. Hit them with the plant, and then follow up with the payoff. There has never been a time that I can remember that rising above the political fray is more appropriate. In fact, staying focused on our service offerings and the equipment we want to buy or sell is such an obvious place to concentrate.

One thing that is becoming abundantly clear is our world, as we know it, is looking more and more like a tabletop puzzle. As an industry, we are always looking for where the pieces fit. Often, the outside edges are the easiest to solve, but the inside boundary areas are the most difficult to fit. We can use similar design details to find matches or colors that seem to fit together but large thousand-piece puzzles are complicated.

As we all look at the first 100 days of this administration to add new colors or designs to our puzzle, we struggle at times to understand the outcome of the initiatives being mandated by the executive actions. Will budget cuts across the board halt spending in aviation centric agendas?

I have decided that being a prognosticator for the future of our industry or our economy is not where you will find me with respect to my articles, my speeches, or my webinars. I intend to bring relevant, non-political topics to us all. I will leave the national news to the reporters. This does not mean that we do not intend to make hay while the sun shines. We are all going to enjoy that. My fellow aircraft professionals, our clients and all the ancillary service providers that make up this robust industry we all call home will enjoy the current economic euphoria.

I am just now building the topic ideas for my 2025 webinars. I intend them to be pleasant, often light-hearted, completely informative, and a great place to spend an hour with your friends and fellow associates. I will have a total of seven more this year – four for the NBAA NewsHour and three more for CJI Town Halls. I sincerely welcome your ideas for topics that you would enjoy learning more about.

In the meantime, let’s talk a minute more about the Plant and the Payoff. What fun to rethink your presentation style and delivery format. Brevity and accuracy can be nicely woven into that format. Keeping conversations light is also important in our current very serious global environment. There is also enough seriousness in the transaction process that we all work within, including major inspection navigation, damage discovered and staying within the boundaries of the contracts we all negotiate.

My intent going forward is certainly not to negate the depth of the daily tasks we enter into as we complete these complex transactions, but rather to be a beacon of entertainment. Again, please send me your ideas, then join me and my panelists as we explore the lighter side. See you all soon around the puzzle table. How was that for a Plant? I promise it will Pay off.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 12/20/24

A panacea? At this point, it is probably too early to tell if this new administration will bring magnificent sustainable growth to our industry or just a flash of new enthusiasm that will track back to a more status quo. So many changes are being proposed for our economy and key agencies. DOGE, for instance, may bring smart efficiencies to the agencies it touches, or it might bring chaos and disruption. It would probably be safe to say that even if executed properly, the significant changes being discussed would bring a disruptive period for some initial period. Investors and aircraft buyers are never very keen on uncertainty.

How do we as an industry heavily reliant on economic forces weather this initial period? I think we stick to the fundamentals those of us who have been doing this for years and years have come to know and instill in our day-to-day dealings. We should expect the need to hold some extra hands and continue to impart on our clients the positive and powerful effect that the use of business aircraft brings to their individual lives and businesses. We should also help prepare our clients and prospects for the look of our market if it slows down a bit such as added inventory, longer days on the market, and the most important piece, price. Correct pricing of our inventory for sale, and what to offer to sellers from the buyers we are representing, is the most critical part of keeping a market moving even if outside factors slow it down a bit.

I do not see a drastic change in the value of aircraft, or the demand to continue to own and operate these important tools for the very powerful efficiency they provide. I see what could be a sluggish second quarter. The first quarter will probably continue riding the stock market highs while also enjoying the euphoria set in motion by the promise of a strong market trajectory.

The second quarter may be when the market begins to react to uncertainty from the initial mandated changes put in place after the inauguration. Our industry looks to us as the aircraft sales professionals to keep sanity in the market, not let the industry overreact to change, and watch carefully for nuggets of certainty and calm.

Underlying market conditions due to change do not have to be catastrophic and if addressed wide-eyed can be communicated in a very smart way, not allowing market swings that cannot be kept in check. The bottom line is that administration change, even with the promise of a disruptive force, does not have to upend solid markets. As we go into the holidays and think about the prospects for next year, go forward positively and with confidence. So much of what the perspective is of the market comes from us, and the smart intel we impart.

Milestones to watch collectively will be how our 4th quarter ends and what happens on day one of the new administration which will be January 20th. Then what things look like on May 1st, which is the end of the first 100 days. So much to watch as we decide Is it or is it not?!

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 11/15/24

May 1st, 2025 is the date by which the new administration will have completed its first 100 days, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder, Mesinger Jet Sales. By then, many of the promised immediate agenda items will have been initiated, and the results will already be apparent. What areas of the agenda are most likely to affect our industry?

What can we, as an industry, start to look at in order to plan for 2025? I just had the privilege to speak on a panel at CJI Miami 2024 where the other great participants all focused on a promising remainder of 2024 and what could be an exceptional 2025.

I believe that most of our industry’s eyes will be focused on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). With many provisions initially set to sunset in 2025, we are likely to see those renewed including restoration of the 100% accelerated or ‘bonus’ depreciation on the purchase of business assets, including aircraft. Lower tax rates are also going to be a potential stimulus for our industry. So, we have a lot to look forward to.

Not discussing headwinds would be a glaring omission. As an industry, we are impacted by so many outside influences. Leaving aside supply chain and over-capacity maintenance facilities, we must always look outside of our industry. Geopolitical events could be complicated by the new administration’s initiatives to solve current issues. On the one hand, these new influences on old skirmishes could create bigger hazards and push economic challenges higher. On the other hand, new resolution opportunities could tamper down these conflicts.

As the title of this article mentions, between January 20th and May 1st, we as an industry should be made aware of what lies ahead for us. That’s why we are focused on tailwinds, headwinds and even possible crosswinds. Crosswinds can come at us from either side and cause us to crab into the alignment of our day-to-day. During our panel, the topic of non-economic subjects was also discussed.

All of us on our panel agreed that every transaction seems to take longer and have more complicated factors than ever before. There seems to be at least 10 different crosswinds and headwinds that come up. And the reality is that they seem to be different in every transaction, so there is no way to plan for the challenges. One of the panelists likened this phenomenon to putting 100 pieces of a puzzle into a bag with a different non-related problem written on each piece, and as you start the transaction, shake the bag up, pour out 10 pieces and there you have the problems. It’s crazy to think about this in those terms but that is today’s reality of transactions.

There is more transaction fatigue than ever before. As a group, we felt that preparing our clients for these delays and bumps was critical, however feeling as if we had answers and could solve them all in advance would not be a reality.

So, give the next 100 days post January 20th their due time to matriculate and prepare for the best. And for the last six weeks of 2024, work hard to realize what promises to be a transaction boom for year-end.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 10/11/24

October surprises, that’s what. Our industry always seems to hang in the balance of international news, domestic news, weather events, and in this year’s case, the US election cycle. There is so much to keep up with. How do we process the events to push through the always important fourth and final quarter of the business year?

Let’s unpack the suitcase of possibilities and, no pun intended, perfect storms. We just experienced the most tragic hurricane since Katrina. As I look at the forecasts, there is already another with just as bad a punch forming. By the time this article publishes it may already be in the history books. Internationally, we are witnessing tremendous geopolitical tragedies in the Middle East, with no winners in these events. The human toll as well as the infrastructure losses are unimaginable. We have yet to fully realize the financial toll these events will have. Our industry will undoubtedly be affected by the outcome of these events.

As we enter the final weeks before our national elections so much hangs in the balance. It is like a game of ping pong watching and listening to the pundits as well as the candidates. The best thing I can say about this proximity to the election is it is almost over. Hopefully!

So how will we overcome these monumental events? By doing what we always do. We’ll put our heads down, not in the sand, and push forward with the collective force we are known for amongst ourselves.

For those of you who are new to our industry, the challenges may seem insurmountable. For us old timers it is just another challenge to overcome.

The good news is as it has always been, our industry represents a real value in adding to commerce and personal travel freedom. We operate within a safe and responsible set of guardrails. We care about our environment, and we care about our participants. That is a recipe for sustainability and success even in the most tragic of times. As we enter October, we can do it with the knowledge that we will be here to carry on in the months and years to come. If you are newcomers, hold on. It may seem scary yet follow the lead of us who have done this before. You are all in good hands I promise.

One great thing on the horizon for our collective community, including our international friends, is the NBAA-BACE convention in the third week of October. With all the turmoil around us, it is always a wonderful coming together of friends and professionals to celebrate, pontificate and hug. Hopefully, I will see many of you in Vegas.

So, take the October surprises as they come, and don’t ever take these tragedies for granted, as they are real and absolutely need heeding.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 9/13/24

Funny how certain dates during the year bring about certain memories for each of us. I am no different. Our summer in the US are marked by three important dates, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder of Mesinger Jet Sales.

Memorial Day starts us out at the end of May and marks the beginning of trees and flowers blooming and the school year coming to an end with summer vacation beginning. Next comes the Fourth of July, another US holiday that captures us all. Family vacations and late nights playing in the neighborhood till the sun goes down. Lastly, Labor Day. This one brackets the summer and gets us ready for final family vacations and back to school, along with the green leaves beginning to turn yellow and red and gold. Now, let’s look at these three holidays as business milestones.

The beginning of summer brings along what could be a slowing in our activity based on summer schedules for corporations. We have become very accustomed to a reduced amount of business activity during the summer months. Vacation schedules as well as postponed board meetings, often find us with fewer transactions. In fact, summer months find some countries taking entire months off work. Very often entire workforces take holidays at the same time. Though our industry in the US does not take prolonged holidays together shuttering entire workforces, we do often ease into a summer doldrum. So, if you are new to our industry and hope to balance out your income during the year, you might be a bit disappointed with the activity and corresponding closings during this time. Bumping along through the summer, we get to the end. The last summer holiday of Labor Day, which seems to come faster the older we get, closes our summer and prepares us for the slingshot back into activity.

2024 in general has some very particular milestones. It is a national election cycle for the US. And what an election cycle we have! This is a typical time for the fence sitters to go to the sidelines to wait for the election outcome. Nothing regarding election results has historically ever made a major difference in the value of our aviation assets. For those new to our industry and hoping the end of the summer may bring activity and transactions back to an active and profitable place, hold on; it may still be slower than most falls and winters until the election is complete. As you all know we are a very dynamic industry that can be affected by any number of internal and external factors. Paying attention to the world around you as well as the chatter within our industry will give you a leg up and help eliminate surprises. I do believe we are in for a robust end to the year.

Now let’s look at Christmas because it could be a bright one! Accelerated depreciation, even though reduced, should still bring in a large group of buyers ready to close by year-end.

Therefore, let’s check our list, see who has been naughty and nice and stand back for a bright and busy holiday season. Remember it is not too early to begin helping those year-end buyers plan and prepare. It is a joint effort between the buyers, the seller, and all the support teams to get these transactions over the finish line. See you all on the transaction playing field.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 8/9/24

So much changed for us all from March 2020 to the end of 2023, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder, Mesinger Jet Sales. At the top of the list, and arguably one of the most frustrating, was the sheer lack of inventory, shifting our sales environment from a fairly balanced market to a sellers’ market.

As I’ve written before, a plane would come on the market in the morning and by lunchtime there would be five full price offers. Then the seller would revert to a bidding war. Not only for the highest price but also for how scaled back the due diligence was being discussed. I often said we should run an ad that says: ‘Hire Mesinger Jet Sales and let us manage your greed.’

We paired down significantly the number of transactions we would be involved in for the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2022 based on the frustration that our clients would suffer trying to keep up with a process that was so seller centric. It started to feel good in 2023 when the market began to shift back to more balance, with increased inventory and greater opportunity to negotiate a more usual and customary transaction.

As we make our way into the second half of 2024 and quickly Q4, I am starting to hear a familiar chant again. If we thought getting pre-buy slots was difficult during the pandemic, just hold on, it is beginning to look a lot like that again. We are getting back to needing a slot booked two and three months out.

This will initiate conversations from our clients of paired down due diligence that we must be very wary about. Don’t be fooled into contemplating a very scaled back pre-buy to allow for a better chance of completing a transaction in a shorter more predictable timeline for year-end tax purposes. There is no such thing given the continued supply chain issues and labour issues of a totally predictable timeline. What can be totally predictable is the expectation of a close within a reasonable period, but not a year-end close.

We are getting to that time of the year when we all are going to start getting calls from buyers who say they want to buy a plane and must close by year end. It might seem early enough for that call and the ability to get closed in time. However, one silly discrepancy – like a piece of skin for a repair that may take six months to manufacture – and the deal is stalled. That of course is an extreme case, which more than likely would hamper the transaction anyway, however, don’t underestimate the timing for rectification.

So, I am starting to hear the old mantra, let’s just pick a number that seems reasonable and reduce the price of the plane and perform very minor views then close. Seems simple but what if…?

We as an industry literally clawed our way back to the opportunity to perform the right, smart due diligence, let’s not slip backwards.

I wrote an article once about manufactured tensions. As if we don’t have enough tensions without manufactured tensions. As a good friend of mine who is a fellow sales professional said to me a few weeks ago: “We need to all work now to help our clients have the right adjusted expectations as we take them into the end-of-year transaction arena”.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 7/12/24

Some things float peoples’ boats, some things make people say stop the world I want to get off. Each of these sayings are used to create a feeling of content or dissatisfaction with events. I took some time to ask several of my fellow aircraft sales professionals what they themselves are feeling based on the current business climate or what they are hearing from their clients.

They all felt that the industry was moving in a positive direction for themselves and their clients. Prices were holding in a way that, although down slightly and still moving incrementally in that direction, did not provoke anyone to fear that the bottom was dropping out. Each felt that the value their clients see in aircraft ownership was continuing, and demand was remaining strong. In talking to our clients, thinking about not having the private travel solution that they have, was not a serious contemplation.

Of course, there are always discussions taking place internally and externally amongst their clients’ companies, flight departments, or friends who are operating aircraft. And generally, the one topic that garners the most attention is operating costs. The salaries of flight department personnel have risen dramatically over the last few years. These people are vital to the safe, efficient and reliable operation of these assets, however, the increase in their cost has created greater visibility, thus invigorating the discussions. Not sure these will ever change in a downward direction, as service providers can be one of the stickiest forms of inflation. Attrition, increased ownership, and usage, without a drastic increase in labor are just a few reasons this line item will likely not go down in the near term.

Subjects that make a few people say stop the world I want to get off center around the disruption of use caused by the ever-present supply chain issues. Labor is top of that list. The shortages of experienced personnel at the manufacturers and MRO and maintenance facilities are continuing to cause serious discomfort for all. Just yesterday I had a client tell me about a 6-week delay in the scheduled modernization completion date for their aircraft. This will of course cause alternative lift costs to rise as well as scheduling headaches that will accompany this delay. Multiply this across the industry and you will see the dissatisfaction this causes.

Many of my friends I spoke with who are sales professionals shared a similar band-aid solution. Start by setting better expectations for their clients, beginning with the extended time it takes for the sale and purchase timeline. What used to be 30–45 days for a prebuy could easily now be a 60-day process. And that is just the timeline for the event and corrective action. This does not even speak to the lead time in finding a slot and starting this process, which we all understand takes as long as an additional 30 days tacked on. So, to help the client or prospect ease their frustration we are all being very careful with this delicate discussion of timing to adjust to a new norm of expectations. These strategies can only be band-aids simply due to the fact that we as aircraft brokers can have very little impact on a solution for supply chains and labor shortages.

So by and large our collective constituents have been on the side of staying the course and enjoying the benefits of aircraft ownership and operation. They are feeling optimistic about owning and operating even in a world of added costs as well as timelines for maintenance and modernization. They are looking forward to many years of enjoyment. With respect to those saying stop the world I want to get off we are all seeing very very few people who feel as if they approached the ownership with not enough facts and must get out. Thankfully, the vast majority of first-time buyers are enjoying the excitement of ownership. This all adds up to a sustainable world for our owners and all of us who service this distinctive group!

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 6/7/24

As we enter the last month of the first half of the year, it is a nice time for reflection. I promise it all looks great, but it is complicated. We at Mesinger Jet Sales are having one of our very best first halves of a year ever. We count this in actual closings but could also measure the success by sheer call activity, although many would say talk is cheap. We would say, like many of you, being able to turn talk into a transaction is one part skill and one part luck.

As a broker today, like our colleagues, we have more inventory to work with, and that alone should make hopping off the fence and into a transaction feel more comfortable for a buyer. We are long past the days of only 1-2% of manufactured aircraft for sale at any given time. Still trying to reach what used to be a benchmark for health of 10%, but in most categories, we are solidly at 5-7%. That brings terrific choice to the buyer community. Along with choice comes the opportunity for negotiation, the opportunity to provide real due diligence to the transaction, and the opportunity to have a calmer less frenzied transaction.

This all sounds wonderful as we look ahead to a successful year. However, as calm and balanced as we find ourselves, if one were to think what we do to complete a transaction is simple, then they are probably not really getting past the activity phase of the transaction. In any given transaction, there are a myriad of players. Each side has a team and melding them together to have one success story is not always easy. Some players have their own agendas, some have less experience in the process, and others have ideas for creating paths to success that cannot always be articulated to all involved.

So how do we get from what could be one of our most successful first halves of a year to celebrating in December after one of our best years? The answer is don’t take your eyes off the ball. Don’t sit back and just think everyone will play correctly together. Don’t dare just assume all will end up like it started.

We still must remember the customer first. They may still be nervous about entering the fray. They may be thinking about the national election, the geopolitical environment, or interest rates. We must not try to simplify what are real and complicated thoughts, but rather help put them into perspective and see the changed landscape we are operating in today with more choice and negotiation. Helping them focus on the benefits of operating their own aircraft. As I always say, the chance to get out ahead of your competition and be in front of your customer is invaluable. The joy of taking your kids, grandkids, and pets around the world to make memories is impossible to place a value on.

So not only do we, as industry professionals, have reason to count the ways, but we also can uncomplicate the complicated. So, join us in the transaction arena and let’s all work together to help our prospects turn that first phone call into a transaction.

Originally published as a News story for Corporate Jet Investor on 5/3/24

As a former childhood magician, I’m often reminded of a story about Harry Houdini, the world’s most renowned magician and escape artist.

Houdini was once performing an escape stunt at a maximum-security prison, where he was tasked with escaping from one of the cells. He worked and worked to pick the lock, and his time to perform the escape was running out. His exhaustion was increasing and the sweat was pouring down his forehead. Finally, after hours of unsuccessfully trying to pick the lock and escape, he fell forward with fatigue against the door, and it just pushed open. You see, the door was not ever actually locked, except for in his mind. He had to get out of his head and see the door for what it always was: unlocked…